Ahmed Rashid – Descenso al Caos. 2 likes. Book. Ahmed Rashid – Descenso al Caos. Book. 2 people like this topic. Want to like this Page? Sign up for. In his appropriately titled “Descent Into Chaos,” Ahmed Rashid says the Clinton administration bears some responsibility for where we find. Descenso al caos: EEUU y el fracaso de la construcción nacional en Pakistán, Afganistán y Asia Central. by Ahmed Rashid; Josep Sarret Grau. Print book.
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We tend to think of history as a process on a grand scale, slow and inexorable, and driven by enormous forces. Hence the relevance of projection exercises, such as the US National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends ” made public last week.
Three fault lines | European Council on Foreign Relations
But there are some places on the planet where history in capitals letters is being written right now. Some of those places can be seen as the geopolitical equivalent of geological fault lines, which, whether they hold together or are pulled asunder, will leave the world a completely different place and not in the long term either, but with immediate effect.
One of those fault lines is the Durand Line, the border drawn up by the British in to separate Afghanistan and Pakistan and which coincides to a great extent with the Hindu Kush mountain range. This border divided the Pashtun community between two States, sowing the seeds of permanent instability in the region. In consequence, the provinces ahmde north eastern Pakistan continue to look to Afghanistan, distrusting the government in Islamabad and providing logistical support and refuge to Taliban insurgents and Al-Qaeda terrorists.
Given its nuclear capacity and its crucial geo-political importance, the United States and Europe have long had to treat Pakistan, not so much pragmatically, but with a cynicism as brazen as it is impotent: Today, in spite desenso Musharraf’s departure, Pakistan continues on edge, and the West lacks a policy to prevent what analysts like Ahmed Rashid have described as the “descent into chaos”.
The other fault line of crucial importance runs through east Congo, along its border between Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Jd MBA joint degree: DESCENSO AL CAOS () Ahmed Rashid
Curiously, it coincides with another geological fault line too, namely the Great Rift, which created the Great Lakes and isolated central Africa from the Indian Ocean. Sincewhen the latent conflicts culminated in the genocide in Rwanda, the region has been aumed to enormous tensions. The Lake Victoria agreements started a regional peace process under the auspices of the United Nations, to which the European Union has offered a high degree of commitment.
In the Congo, the EU provided support for the electoral process, launched a police and judicial support mission, and initiated a reform programme of the Congolese armed forces. But none of this has been enough to contain the tensions on the Rwandan border, where the Congolese army, Mai-Mai, Hutu and Tutsi militias have all been fighting it out for descensk of the territory, highly rich in natural resources.
The UN missionmade up of Although the Security Council has decided to reinforce the mission with three thousand additional troops, these will not be ccaos to shore up the enormous humanitarian breach which will be left gaping if the conflict spills over. Despite the resources invested by the international community, the Congo’s descent into chaos has already begun, with the retreating Congolese army looting, coas and raping the very population it was supposedly entrusted to protect.
Inevitably, if the situation continues to deteriorate, the EU will have to send one of its recently created battle-groups to the region.
Three fault lines
The third important fault line is Ukraine, a country on a knife-edge since the Orange revolution of and which faces Presidential elections at the beginning of With a divided government and a highly fragile economy, the country’s destiny is to a large extent in Russia’s hands. What Europe will look like in depends to a great extent which way up Ukraine eventually falls: Despite the fact that, as things stand, the EU is unable to offer the promise of accession to Kiev, it certainly can become much more deeply involved in Ukraine for its own interests.
In a celebrated article on the difficulties of making forecasts in international relations, Ned Lebow and Janice Stein said that “God gave Physicists the easy problems to solve”. In each and every one of these conflicts, the strategies of actors and random events intersect unpredictably, and decisions are adopted with only partial information, leading all too often to unintended consequences.
If the truth be told, we know more about how the world will look in than what’s going to happen tomorrow in Pakistan, the Congo or Ukraine. Solemos pensar en la historia como un gran proceso, lento e inexorable, dirigido por grandes fuerzas. Desdecuando los conflictos latentes desembocaron en el genocidio de Ruanda, la zona ha estado sometida a enormes tensiones.
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